Game Type: 特南喰赤
4位 C:Dasuke(-55.0) D:SHOWA茂王(+16.0) A:ＡＲＵＲＡ(-19.0) B:otomana(+58.0)
E1-0 7th Turn:
A question of slimming down.
The board is getting pretty crazy and dealer has two calls. If I want to have this hand to have any chance of tenpai later on it needs to slim down NOW. Dealer just dropped 69m so even if they are in tenpai its probably a pretty bad shape one, or they're not in tenpai yet. I don't want to drop the dora or any of its surrounding tiles, which would mean if this hand DOES eventually move closer to tenpai and I can't drop the 668s shape, I have to make two blocks out of it. With two blocks there, 1 block from 23m, 1 block from 456p, and 1 block from East East (unless I drop that and make two out of 4566 shape), then I would have the left over tiles of 9m,1p, and 6p. So in regards to just that, throwing the 6p while I have a chance is probably the best approach... is what I thought in the game.
One thing I ignored here was the HUGE potential threat of my shimocha. Not only have they dropped 56m pretty early on, but more importantly they threw a Live First discard of the 8s dora against a dealer with two calls. If that doesn't scream "I Have something Amazing!!" I don't know what does. If the don't have tenpai then their 1shanten hand would have to be something crazy to fight like that. Another possiblity is that they are Already in tenpai, the reason they're not reaching is that it has already reached the Mangan threshold.
Considering that it would probably be best to not drop the scary 6p and work it into my 4566 shape to get two blocks out of that, which leaves dropping the 1p,9m, and east pair.
E2-0 4th Turn:
Given this hand, if tenpai his hit on 47p draw, whille it definately seems better to take the 69s ryanmen wait over the 8s東 shabo wait since it has 2 dora tiles, in which case would it be better to take the shabo?
Running this hand in Hitori Mahjong Simulator, changing around the dora to get the number of dora tiles, and changing east to another yakuhai that only gives 1 yaku since HTM runs as East seat and East wind, we find that having 2, 1, or even 0 dora the answer is 9s. That being said, honor tile waits have an unusually high winning rate, which in Fukuchi's Push/Pull book is specified to being equivalent to a ryanmen class wait.
Another intersting thing is that if this hand is ran in HTM with no dora, but the yakuhai is a double wind, the answer in the scope of the simulator switches over to the shabo wait! So in an actual game, board depending, a 1 dora+ hand would probably be better taking the ryanmen, while a no dora hand takes the honor pair wait. 69s is pretty good, but in regards to ron rates, I'm curious if this question would hold up for a 1 dora hand with something like a 544 shape.
E2-2 5th Turn:
Hand Formation Question, WWYD?
This is a pretty intersting hand. Breaking it up into potential blocks: 2[2330m], 3,1[西西], and a floating 5s. 2330m is a little iffy for two blocks since two 1m are already discarded. Similarly trying to get 3 blocks out of 3057789p shape sems hard as well. In the game I though that 3057789p shape could be broken down with a 5p throw into 307p and 789p shapes, leaving the 5s floating tile for a good potential improvement. Running this on HTM with two dora (since no red), and just paying attention to various tenpai and win rates:
Suprisngly 5s is up there? Even when the calculations include the two discarded 1m and 38p discards it remains the same. Why is that? Well one thing I didn't account for with this hand was the potential for Chiitoitsu, with the hand already having 4 pairs. Discounting the 0m drop because its dora, the 5s drop has the highest tenpai and self draw win percentage in the simulator.
E2-2 9th Turn:
Given a 5.2k hand with no yaku and a Live or Die situation, riichi is here is NO question. But an intersting hypothetical is, should you riichi if 4m was drawn instead of 1m?
In this case if 4m was drawn, the hand would have a pinfu, dora 2 tenpai. Even given the point situation I think it would be BETTER to not riichi if this hand could. Why? Exactly because of the points. At 1700 points, if I deal in to most anything I'm going to tobi regardless. If they get a mangan or 1600/3200 tsumo, because of honba, I would also tobi. Now if I riichi, not just for the mangan level tsumos from before, but for Any 1h40fu hand or higher, if they tsumo I lose. The game is still in the early rounds, and I have two dealerships ahead of me if I stay alive. Winning here and getting above the Death by any Tsumo range seems to be pretty important. Given thats the case I would rather have the chance for a 3.9k and pass up a 8k hand if that means it gives me a better chance of surviving. Not to mention dama 14m pinfu has a higher win rate than riichi. In this case where survival is important to even get to the hands that can bring you back from the depths, getting out of the <2k zone takes priority.