A game which showed some blaring weaknesses in my play and decision making under a couple of similar scenarios.
Game Type: 特南喰赤
4位 D:Dasuke(-50.0) A:kenken48(+27.0) B:白湯眠(-39.0) C:替え玉(+62.0)
E3-0 9th Turn
A fold situation, but how much should be folded?
Currently 3rd place in East 3-0. Dealer has declared riichi on the 8th turn and last place is dangerously close to tobi. In the case that Dealer tsumos a mangan, or even rons last place, then I'll end the game with a solid 3rd place, which is not preferred. Considering this, should I push slightly safe tiles like the super once chance 3p and see if I can find a path to stop their riichi? The quick answer, No.
The theme here is focusing on one thing so hard, ending the game in a potential second as opposed to a likely 3rd, and completely overlooking something important while I'm focused on the other thing, the risk of falling closer or even into last place. Dealer riichi is not something to mess with lightly, even with a lead like this over fourth place, a single haneman will INSTANTLY send me into the depths, even a mangan puts 4th in a VERY reasonable range to escape. Rather than thinking "How can I raise my position?" it is equally important to consider "How could I possibly lose?" This isn't the first time a situation like this has occured either. Whenever last place is near the tobi point, my reaction is generally to push hard as a single tsumo or ron could instantly end the game right then and their, it basically becomes Orasu at that point. While this is not entirely incorrect, so too is not entrely correct either. The potential threats on the field and how they can change the existing status quo of the board is very important. By pushing here and giving myself a very far off chance for a 2nd place flight, by fighting I'm putting myself in a situation where I have a much higher risk than falling to last place compared to the chances of going up to 2nd.
S3-2 13th Turn
Hey look what situation came around again. Surely it will turn out good this time!
Same as before, I have a 'chance hand' here with a possible haneman tsumo if I get the iitsu with riichi, or even a direct ron on 2nd to jump up a place! Of course dealer is in riichi, but with this much distance between me and last I shouldn't be worried about Anything... right...?
Not quite. Same as the question before, this is a situation where I'm too focused on the potnetial benefits and ignoring some, while semi unlikely, but still very real possibilities of things that could go horribly wrong. Here one of them came into fruition, dropping the 7p and dealing ot dealers 6667p waiting shape for riichi, tanyao, dora, and (Guess What!) 3 ura dora. Add on the 600 honba and that's a last place tobi~
Now while the 3 ura dora are quite unfortunate here, they did show me something quite nice. While playing the game I was compeltely oblivious to the 'worst case' or even 'likely bad cases' associated with this play. Even a mangan ron would have put me in pretty reasonable striking distance, or tobi distance, away from fourth place, and the idea that a oya haneman ron with the honba could tobi me never came to mind. By focusing so much on that VERY SLIM CHANCE of getting 2nd, I looked over MUCH MORE likely ways that I could potentially lose by taking the risks necessary for that tiny 2nd place chance.
Just because the game is polated and someone is about to tobi doesn't mean that you should play with straight up offense. Stay realistic, and look at ALL the possiblities, both Postive and Negative.