Game Type: 特南喰赤
2位 C:Dasuke(+10.0) D:なべちゃ(-19.0) A:miwaku@(+64.0) B:FeFeFe(-55.0)
E1-0 2nd Turn
WWYD and how would you describe the pattern in this hand in regards to your decision?
During game the way I looked at this was though simple block theory. In which case: 1[356m], 2[4689p], 1[3345s], 1[899s] with floating 3m and 3s, as such I chose to drop the 3m. Though normally there is a choice that has a higher EV and higher tenpai and winning rates compared to the the 3m, and that would be the 9p.
Why is this? Well if we look at the specified blocks, pulling out two from the 4689p shape is pretty difficult, and 89p doesn't have much room to grow. Plus, treated as a single group, the pinzu then form a 468 double kanchan shape. So in this case, up until about the 6th turn, a 9p block is better because earlier on because rather than confirming two bad shape hard to improve blocks, its better to take one improved block and two strong floating tiles over the 9p.
Now this in the normal case, in the case where the 7p is the dora, while keeping the 4689p as a two block potential is still pretty limited, it gains the bonus of being able to easily take in the dora or even more. Since that's the case, it kinda loops back around to the 3m (or potentially even 3s drop when looking at sanshoku potential...)
E1-0 2nd Turn 9th Turn:
Looking at the board, there are a couple of interesting things going on. First off it looks as though two people are aiming for honiitsu/chiniitsu. Shimocha seems to be aiming at a pinzu honiitsu/chiniitsu, while toimen seems to be going for what could potetnially be a manzu honiitsu.
While Shimocha doesn't seem to be showing any signs of being in tenpai with their hand, toimen does. Though the thing with toimen is, while their discards are pretty questionable and could be pointing to honiitsu, that might not necessarily be the case. For one, they could be going for a quick hand which could explain the discards, and since they have a nice lead a hand that moves the game along is quite advantageous to them. On another hand, they could have plenty of value from something like a dora 5p pair, even with potentially the 0p for a guarenteed mangan level hand. Else if they are going for honiitsu, the 6m overflow tile is a definate red flag.
While its ok to fight the non completed Shimocha hand with a first riichi 1 dora kanchan, even if waiting on dora though this can potentially give two with the 0p draw, fighting toimen is a bit more of a problem. In the cases presented, if either the honiitsu or 5p pair shape comes true than fighting an 8k hand with a bad shape 1 dora kanchan riichi would be a loss. Though if they are just going for a quick hand to move on the round, then it might be worth it. Though seeing the extent of their push and not consistently keeping honor tiles (or potential safe tiles) till later over drops like 4s and 4p, then there's a decent chance that they're aiming for something and its worth the push. So rather than riichi staying closed might be better here than fighting it out till the end.