Sorry for not posting for so long, I was running around these last couple of weeks so I decided to queue up games in order to write them up while on trips, but then I lost of the discussion on that hands that was made before, so I'm going back to writing the article up along with the game analysis!
Sorry the formatting is a bit weird, Ghost is having some interesting updates lately...
Game Type: 特南喰赤
1位 D:Dasuke(+49.0) A:soktake(-40.0) B:稲妻メッシ(-23.0) C:μ(+14.0)
E1-0 7th Turn
Run after tanyao or keep the haku pair?
In game I learned towards haku drop. 8p is the usual drop since you're left with the the 446 + other pair, but in this case a couple things are going on. First off toimen is going for what looks to be an iitsu (or potentially even honiitsu). They called twice so pretty good chance they're in tenpai at this point, so most likely a call into tenpai is desired (uzaku books views pon tiles as being 4x faster, chi tiles as 2x faster). There is currently only a single haku out so I'm pretty hesitant of calling for a 25s in the case we drop the 8 and keep that shape. Though if haku is dropped, this hand can now call on 7p,2s, and 5s to get into tenpai, with a best draw of getting the 7p for riichi pinfu tanyao dora, or a 25p draw gives riichi tanyao dora 1 as well.
E2-0 4th Turn
How much respect do you start giving a hand with progression like this? Kamicha's hand that is...
Dora drops are usually red flags, especially easy to use ones; ryanmen with a dora drop, even more so. Fukuchi has a related question in his Kachigumi no Sentaku book, which is basically a question showing not to fight hands with discards like this lightly. Though that example in the book concerns itself with defending only After that hand hit tenpai.
In this case its quite likely kamicha is going for chiniitsu or honiitsu hand. Though this is a bit outstanding hand. Even for honiitsu, if you have a ryanmen + dora in your hand most hand progressions will keep that shape and aim for riichi. Only hands that have not Just a mangan or haneman+ value, but also have an equally close progression that could afford dropping the ryanmen, could reasonably aim for that yaku by dropping that and still have the highest EV possible for the hand on this 4th turn decision.
E3-0 5th Turn
1shanten with plenty of ryanmen and two dora? Is it time to drop that hatsu dora?
Of course it is! Even if someone calls this is a hand that could easily fight, though only once it hits tenpai. So why drop it now as opposed to later? The reason is the chance of people calling it, or even winning off it gets higher and higher each turn. おしえて!科学する麻雀 has some data just for this! On the first turn there's about a 9.5% chance of a yakuhai dora being called. That increases about 3.4% each turn up till the 7th turn where it caps out at a bit over 30%. After the 7th turn, the chances of someone winning on that tile go up as well! That being the case, with a hand worth dropping it, now is better than later.
E4-0 8th Turn
Generally speaking you should dama with this hand yes?
Dama on a 6s for 7.7k, and if the 4s or 8s is drawn, then riichi with the pinfu is what seems to be the fundamental play here.
But with what seems to be a board that's pretty dead for inner tiles from literally every single player, how unreasonable is it to riichi with this hand as dealer and attempt to shut people down while going for a potential 18k tsumo? Even in the case where this hand riichi's and someone fights, this is definitely a fighting hand to fight back with.
S1-0 8th Turn
Dreams of an early 3m trap, sanankou, or even a suuankou progression...all thrown the trash as the first seven discards were tsumogiri'd. Now on the 8th turn tenpai at last, but relatively weak 1p and 6p shabo. Riichi?
In the game when I got to tenpai on this hand in the 8th turn, I saw I had a 1p 6p shabo wait, but one of the 1p was already dead so it was only a 3 tile wait. Not to mention aside from that 1p and a first turn 9p, no other pinzu had been thrown at that point, so it looked pretty dismal in regards to the number of people on the board that were holding on to pinzu at this point (everyone).
Though after thinking about it again, if this was a kanchan with only 3 tiles remaining and a 1 dora hand, would I take it? As first riichi on the 8th turn, Yes! Thats a pretty fundamental riichi.
A viewer Zech asked: "So a 3-tile kanchan is better than 3-tile shanpon in general?"
The opposite, generally a shanpon wait is better! So if one should take the kanchan there, then the shabo is also a fundamental riichi.